Republicans, Who They Are and Where They Are Heading

I love looking at demographic and polling data. It can bring up insights that one would otherwise not have considered. Public Policy Polling put out a release that broke down Republican opinion. I highly recommend looking at the data for yourself.

Some reporting on it has focused on the gender divide. Republican men are more motivated by fiscal issues. And Republican women are more motivated by social issues. That leads to the odd results of Republican women being stronger supporters of Christian theocracy in America, despite the obvious fact that would harm women the most. Fortunately, female Republicans are a smaller proportion of the GOP.

One sad part of the data is the age component. Younger Republicans aren’t becoming more liberal. What the data doesn’t show is that the younger cohort in general is becoming more liberal, and they are also less supportive of the Republican Party. What is happening is that the few young folk left remaining in the Republican Party are the most extreme elements. Basically, there are almost no moderate young Republicans left. Moderate Republicans have been disappearing for a long time, but we are about ready to declare them finally extinct.

Considering this, I wonder what the Republican Party will look like 10 to 20 years from now. They are at a crises point. The party has been mostly some combination of older people, whites, and men. Obviously, it can’t stay that way. As the few remaining young reactionaries push the party even further toward radical right-wing politics, a choice will have to be made. If they continue down that path, they will become obsolete.

7 thoughts on “Republicans, Who They Are and Where They Are Heading

  1. They will probably get more radical in the future.

    The problem is that this is not a solution. The Democratic Party is not (for the most part) a friend of the typical American. Perhaps if you are in the top 5-10% though, a case could be made that they are the beneficiaries, and certainly the top 1%, but not for the bottom.

    • Here is the possible scenario I see.

      If the Republican Party becomes more extreme, it will simply become less attractive to most Americans. This will create a void. Republicans will no longer be able to compete equally with Democrats. This will create an opportunity for third parties to challenge the status quo. When that happens, all bets are off.

      It would be equivalent to the Republicans becoming the new main party during that transitional phase of American society. That struggle for a new political order was only able to be established through civil war.

      What if there is a new struggle for political power? What will it take to establish it?

  2. What will it take?

    A solid, reliable voting block that votes for that power to support it.

    The big challenge that I see is that any reform could come just as easily from the far right as it could from the left. Witness the Tea Party and the rise of the Nazis.

    My thought’s mirror this:

    But the far right could just as easily manipulate. In fact they’ve proven there’s a large populace quite gullible to exactly that.

    • However, public opinion is shifting left on nearly every major issue.

      The Tea Party never represented many people. They only had any power by aligning themselves with an already established main party with its propaganda-media operation (Fox News, right-wing talk radio, etc). The same weakness of the Tea Party is what is challenging the GOP.

      The demographics is against them and there is no way of getting around that. We are heading into the first time in American history when there is no racial or ethnic majority. Also, two of the fastest growing groups are the racially mixed and the non-religious.

      The rise of the Nazis, on the other hand, was basically a military coup d’etat that used a false flag operation to terrorize the population into submission. It was only possible because it followed a period of destabilization greater than anything the US has seen in a long while.

      I’m not saying that I know what it will lead to. What I’m pointing to is that it will be something new, not a repeat of the past and a continuation of what is already in place. Even a right-wing reactionary movement would require something entirely new, which the Tea Party failed to do in its rehashing of worn out rhetoric. Fear-mongering whites aren’t going to lead us into the future, which isn’t to say that fear-mongering won’t play a role, but if it does it will be new forms of it.

      Even if the future turns out horrifically, it will be in ways we can’t predict based on the past. Too much is changing too quickly.

  3. Yes, the demographics are turning against the social conservatives. The end result will probably look closer to that of Canada, although probably still further to the right of the typical Canadian.

    The ideal would be a move towards something like northern Europe.

    But, a repeat of the Nazi like false flag (ex: a burning of the Reichstag) is a very dangerous probability. For one thing, the economy remains bad so long as the banks, the rich, and the corporate world is in control. That tends to lead to bad ideologies.

    • There is always the infamous Business Plot. That type of thing is a distinct possibility. America is in the position that could create a kind of fascism never before seen in the world. If this country ever went full authoritarian, it would be an event that might overshadow even the Nazis. But I’m not sure how likely that is at this point. We’d have to get much worse off before the conditions would be right.

  4. The biggest question is whether or not the American people would be gullible enough to obey and follow in line with something like a business plot. I am sure that they would use a more “pr friendly” type of name, but would people recognise it for what it is? The direction so far is not encouraging.

    I suspect that a large proportion of the population would passively accept the collapse of the US into a developing nation.

    This is not entirely a hypothetical question given the direction that civil liberties and inequality have taken.

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